Odds To Win Us Open 2018 Tennis
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Welcome to ESPN's new tennis contest for the US Open: Tennis Major Pick'em: New York!
What is it? It's a brand-new, free-to-play game, where you take a few minutes to answer a series of questions related to the upcoming US Open tennis Grand Slam event, which starts on Monday, August 31, and ends Sunday, September 13. You can play against your friends, family and coworkers, while also trying to climb the overall leaderboard for a chance to win $1,000.
Listed below are the 16 questions you'll need to answer in order to participate, and ESPN researcher Kyle Soppe and I teamed up to supply you some nuggets of info to help guide you through your decision-making process.
Good luck!
1. Who will win the Men's Singles Championship?
A. Novak Djokovic
B. Daniil Medvedev
C. Dominic Thiem
D. Any Other Player
The past 13 Grand Slam tournaments have all been won by Djokovic, Rafael Nadal or Roger Federer. But neither Nadal (COVID-19 concerns) nor Federer (knee) are playing, and Djokovic had won five of the past seven Grand Slams himself, so he enters the US Open as the overwhelming favorite.
Caesars Sportsbook has Djokovic at -120 to win, with Medvedev and Thiem the next closest at +600 each.
Medvedev was a finalist at last year's US Open, but otherwise has never finished better in a Slam than his fourth-round showing in this year's Australian Open. Thiem made the Finals at the Australian Open, the only Slam played thus far this season, and has made the semifinals or better in five Slams (four of them French Opens), but he lost in the first round of the US Open last season and has never made it beyond the quarterfinals (2018) at Flushing Meadows.
Djokovic is currently in the semifinals at the final tune-up event, the Western & Southern Open.
2. Who will win the Women's Singles Championship?
A. Serena Williams
B. Karolina Pliskova
C. Sofia Kenin
D. Any other player
The past 13 Grand Slams have been won by 11 different women, with only Simona Halep and Naomi Osaka winning two during that span. Williams hasn't won a Grand Slam since the 2017 Australian Open, though she has made the final in four of the eight Slams (including both US Opens) she has entered since returning from her maternity absence in 2018.
Pliskova has never won a Slam, has made the final at a Slam only once (2016 US Open), and has otherwise never made it past the quarterfinals at Flushing Meadows.
Kenin won the 2020 Australian Open but has otherwise never made it past the fourth round of any Slam and never past the third round at the US Open.
Caesars Sportsbook has 2018 US Open champion Osaka as the favorite at +400, followed by Williams at +550, Pliskova at +1000 and Kenin at +1100.
3. How many Americans will make the Men's and Women's Quarterfinals?
A. 0
B. 1
C. 2
D. 3 or more
There has been at least one American quarterfinalist in each of the past six Grand Slams on the women's side, and in four of the past six on the men's side. Two Americans made the quarters at the 2020 Australian Open, one at the 2019 US Open, three at 2019 Wimbledon, three at the 2019 French Open, three at the 2019 Australian Open and four at the 2018 US Open.
According to Caesars Sportsbook, four of the eight women with the best odds to win the US Open are American, but there is no American man among the top-20.
4. Will an unseeded player reach the Men's or Women's Semifinals?
A. Yes
B. No
At least one unseeded player has reached the semifinals in the past five Grand Slams, including the 2019 US Open, with two making the semis of the 2019 French Open. The last Slam without an unseeded semifinalist on either the men's or the women's side was the 2018 US Open.
This US Open is unusual because of the number of players missing it due to COVID-19 concerns, which could open up the draw to more ranking instability than usual.
5. What will be Coco Gauff's tournament result?
A. Champion or finalist
B. Semifinalist or quarterfinalist
C. Round of 16
D. Any other result
Gauff has excelled at the Grand Slams in her short career, making the fourth round at Wimbledon, the third round at the US Open and the fourth round at the Australian Open in her Slam debuts. Her US Open draw this year is challenging, starting with her opening match against 31st seed Anastasija Sevastova, who made the US Open semis in 2018. If Gauff advances and the seeding runs true, she would have a potential rematch against 2018 US Open champion Naomi Osaka in the third round, followed by a potential match against eighth-seeded Petra Martic in the fourth.
Caesars Sportsbook has Gauff at +1,800 to win the US Open, the seventh-best odds on the board.
6. How many five-set matches will be played?
A. 0-10
B. 11-15
C. 16-20
D. 21 or More
Five-set matches have been relatively rare at the US Open in recent years. There were five played at the 2019 US Open, six in 2018 and five in 2017.
7. What will be Stefanos Tsitsipas' tournament result?
A. Champion
B. Finalist
C. Semifinalist
D. Any other result
Tsitsipas had a breakout 2019 season, making the semifinals at the Australian Open and winning the year-end ATP Finals Championship. However, in between, he lost in the first round at both Wimbledon and the US Open in 2019. He made the third round of the only Grand Slam this year, the Australian Open, and enters the US Open on a high note after making the semifinals at the final tune-up Western and Southern Open.
8. What will be Andy Murray's tournament result?
A. Champion or finalist
B. Semifinalist
C. Quarterfinalist
D. Any other result
Murray enters the US Open ranked 134th in the world, still trying to work his way back after the hip injuries that caused him to temporarily retire in 2019. He has participated in only two Grand Slams since Wimbledon of 2017, making the second round in the 2018 US Open before losing in the first round of the 2019 Australian Open. Murray made the Round of 16 at the last US Open tune-up, the Western & Southern Open, with a strong win over fifth-seeded Alexander Zverev in the second round before losing to Milos Raonic 6-2, 6-2.
9. Will any match last at least 4 hours?
A. Yes
B. No
Nadal and Medvedev played a four-hour, 51-minute final during the 2019 US Open, and Nadal's return-based style that leads to extended rallies is conducive to marathon matches. However, Nadal is not in this draw, which lowers the probability on the men's side.
The longest women's match in the history of the US Open was 3 hours and 33 minutes.
10. Which of these players will advance the furthest?
A. Petra Kvitova
B. Alexander Zverev
C. Madison Keys
D. Milos Raonic
On the women's side, Kvitova is ranked 12th in the world and Keys is 13th. Caesars Sportsbook gives Kvitova the fifth-best odds to win the title at +1,500, while Keys has the ninth-best odds at +2,100.
Kvitova hasn't won a Grand Slam since 2014 Wimbledon but did make the final of the 2019 Australian Open on hard courts. She lost in the second round at the 2019 US Open but made the quarterfinals in both 2017 and 2015. Keys has never won a Grand Slam, but she made the final of the 2017 US Open and the semifinals of three other Slams, including the 2018 US Open. Last year, she made the fourth round at Flushing Meadows.
Among the men, Zverev is ranked seventh in the world. Raonic is working his way back from injury and is ranked 30th, but he is a current finalist at the US Open tune-up tournament, the Western & Southern Open. Caesars Sportsbook has Zverev with the fifth-best odds to win the tournament at +1,600, and Ranoic sixth at +2,500. Zverev had the best result of his Grand Slam career as a semifinalist at the 2020 Australian Open and is also coming off his best result of a fourth-round finish at the 2019 US Open.
Raonic missed the 2019 US Open due to injury but made the fourth round at the 2018 US Open and the quarterfinals of the 2020 Australian Open.
11. Women's First Round who will win?
A. #31 Anastasija Sevastova
B. Coco Gauff
Sevastova enters the US Open ranked 43rd in the world, while Gauff is 52nd. Gauff, at 16 years old, is long and athletic, two inches taller but more than 30 pounds lighter than her 30-year old opponent.
Sevastova reached a career-best ranking of 11th in the world in late 2018, and in her past four US Opens, she has made the semifinals once and the quarterfinals twice, in addition to her third-round finish last year.
Gauff has made at least the third round in each of the Grand Slams for which she has qualified, including the third round in her US Open debut last year.
Caesar's Sportsbook has Gauff as the favorite at -185, with Sevastova at +150.
12. Women's First Round who will win?
A. Kim Clijsters
B. #21 Ekaterina Alexandrova
Clijsters is working her way back from retirement at 36 years old, while Alexandrova comes in ranked 27th in the world. Clijsters has had some success during her comeback, including convincing wins in a World Team Tennis event over 2017 US Open champion Sloane Stephens and 2020 Australian Open champion Sofia Kenin.
Caesars Sportsbook has Alexandrova as the favorite in their match at -260, with Clijsters at +205.
13. How many aces will Serena Williams record in the First Round?
A. 0-5
B. 6-10
C. 11-14
D. 15 or More
Williams has recorded between two and nine aces in the first round of each of her last six Grand Slam appearances: nine at the 2020 Australian Open, five at the 2019 US Open, seven at 2019 Wimbledon, nine at the 2019 French Open, two at the 2019 Australian Open and six at the 2018 US Open. Thus far in 2020, Williams has 74 aces in 11 matches (6.7 aces/match), while first round opponent Kristie Ahn has won 37.3% of return points this year.
14. Men's First Round who will win?
A. #8 Roberto Bautista Agut
B. Tennys Sandgren
Bautista Agut and Sandgren have never played each other on tour, but Bautista Agut enters the US Open ranked 12th in the world, while Sandgren is ranked 55th.
Bautista Agut has lost in the first round of the past two US Opens and lost in the third round in the Australian Open this year, but he won 42 of 64 matches in 2019 and nine of 12 thus far in 2020.
Sandgren made the third round of last year's US Open and the quarterfinals of this year's Australian Open, but he won only 13 of 30 matches in 2019 and seven of 12 thus far in 2020.
Bautista-Agut enters the tournament on a high note, currently in the semifinals of the final tune-up tournament, the Western & Southern Open.
Caesars Sportsbook has Bautista Agut as the heavy favorite to win the match at -475, with Sandgren at +345.
15. Men's First Round who will win?
A. #7 David Goffin
B. Reilly Opelka
Goffin and Opelka have played each other twice on tour, with Goffin winning in five sets at the 2017 Australian Open and Opelka winning 6-7, 7-6, 7-5 in Basel last year. Goffin is the higher seed and is much more established, with 274 career wins and four titles, as he approaches his 30th birthday, but he hasn't won a title since 2017.
Opelka's 22nd birthday was the Friday before the US Open, and he won his two titles in 250 series-level events with the latest coming in February of this year. The biggest contrast between the two is height, with Opelka a towering 6-foot-11 and Goffin a foot shorter at 5-foot-11. This translates to their style of play, with Opelka as the dominant server who ranks third on the tour in winning 91.0% of his service games during the past 52 weeks versus Goffin's 53rd ranking of 77.9%. Conversely, Goffin is an excellent returner, ranking fifth on tour in winning 28.5% of his return games during the past 52 weeks versus Opelka's 10.6% rate that ranks 77th.
Caesars Sportsbook has Goffin as the favorite at -185, with Opelka at +150.
16. Will Novak Djokovic's serve be broken in the 1st Round?
A. Yes
B. No
Djokovic has won 87.8% of his service games during the past 52 weeks on all surfaces to rank seventh on the tour, and 88.6% of his service games on hard courts to rank fifth. Djokovic was not broken in the first round of the 2019 US Open, but he has been broken at least once in his other five most recent Grand Slam appearances, including being broken four times in the first round of the 2020 Australian Open. Djokovic's first round opponent, Damir Dzumhur, has won 33% of return points on hard courts thus far in 2020 after winning 37% in 2019.
Welcome to ESPN's tennis contest for the Australian Open: Tennis Major Pick'em: Melbourne!
What is it? It's a free-to-play game, where you take a few minutes to answer a series of questions related to the upcoming Australian Open tennis Grand Slam event, which starts on Monday, Feb. 8, and ends Sunday, Feb. 21. You can play against your friends, family and coworkers, while also trying to climb the overall leaderboard for a chance to win $1,000.
Listed below are the 12 questions you'll need to answer in order to participate, and I teamed up ESPN Stats and Information to supply you some nuggets of info to help guide you through your decision-making process.
Good luck!
Who will win the Men's Singles Championship?
Novak Djokovic
Rafael Nadal
Dominic Thiem
Any Other Player
Djokovic has won the past two Australian Open championships and eight overall. Since 2006, his record at the event is 75-6. He is coming off a 2020 season in which he won 37 of his 39 outdoor matches, including the 2020 Australian Open.
Nadal has won the event only once, in 2009, but he has made at least the quarterfinals nine times since then, including four Finals. Outside of a first-round exit in 2016, Nadal has made at least the quarterfinals of every Australian Open he's entered since 2007. He is coming off a 2020 season in which he was 22-4 outdoors and 18-6 on hardcourts overall.
Thiem had never advanced past the fourth round of the Australian Open until last season's tournament, when he defeated Nadal in the quarters and lost a close five-setter to Djokovic in the finals. Thiem also won his first career major in 2020 at the US Open, and overall was 17-2 in his three 2020 major events.
With Roger Federer out with a knee injury, the only player outside of Djokovic or Nadal to have ever won the Australian Open is Stan Wawrinka (2014).
Who will win the Women's Singles Championship?
Naomi Osaka
Ashleigh Barty
Simona Halep
Any Other Player
Osaka won the 2019 Australian Open but was upset by Coco Gauff in the third round of the 2020 event. Nevertheless, Osaka would go on to finish 2020 with a 16-2 record on hard courts and a 9-1 record in majors, as she won the 2020 US Open.
Barty advanced to the semifinals of the 2020 Australian Open, after making the quarterfinals in 2019, her two best finishes in the event. She won her only major with the 2019 French Open. Barty didn't play any more events in 2020 after the Australian Open, citing COVID-19 concerns, but she still enters the tournament as the top seed in the WTA rankings.
Halep advanced to the semifinals of the 2020 Australian Open and the finals of the 2018 event, but she has never won a major on hard courts. She did go 10-2 on hard courts and 23-3 overall in 2020.
Osaka, Barty and Halep have three of the four best odds to win this year's Singles Championship, with Aryna Sabalenka of Belarus as the other favorite. Defending French Open champion Iga Swiatek, Serena Williams and defending Australian Open champion Sofia Kenin have the next three best odds.
Williams has won the event seven times but has advanced no further than the quarterfinals since her maternity absence in 2017.
Who will record more Aces in the First Round?
Milos Raonic
Taylor Fritz
During the past 52 weeks, Raonic is third on the ATP Tour with an average of 17.2 aces per match, while Fritz ranks 17th with 9.7 aces per match. On hard courts, the gap narrows slightly, with Raonic ranking fourth with 16.4 aces per match while Fritz ranks 13th at 10.4 aces per match.
How many Men's and Women's Singles seeded players will lose in the First Round?
0-5
6-10
11-15
16 or More
During the past 11 Grand Slams, from 2018 through 2020, a total of 77 seeded men and 76 seeded women have lost in the first round. This breaks down to an average of 13.9 seeded men and women to lose in each tournament. During that same time period, 5.3 seeded men and 7.0 seeded women have lost in the first round on average for a total of 12.3 losses per Australian Open.
What will be Serena Williams' tournament result?
Champion or Finalist
Semifinalist or Quarterfinalist
Round of 16
Any Other Result
Williams has won the Australian Open a record-tying seven times and an Open Era record 23 individual majors overall, but her last win was in 2017 in the Australian Open before her maternity leave. She has played in 10 Grand Slams since returning and has made the finals in four of them, but she has not won any. At the Australian Open, she advanced to the quarterfinals in 2019 and the third round in 2018. Williams is already the oldest woman to win a Grand Slam in the Open era, when she won the 2017 Australian Open at age 35. Also of note is that she pulled out of the Australian Open tune-up event, after reaching the semifinals, due to a shoulder issue.
What will be Alexander Zverev's tournament result?
Champion or Finalist
Semifinalist or Quarterfinalist
Round of 16
Any Other Result
Zverev is coming off the best season of his career. He advanced to at least the fourth round in all three Grand Slam events, including the semifinals of the Australian Open and the finals of the US Open. Zverev went 25-10 on hard courts last season. At the Australian Open, he has improved his results in each of the past three years, from the third round in 2018 to the fourth round in 2019 to the semifinals in 2020.
What will be Sofia Kenin's tournament result?
Champion or Finalist
Semifinalist or Quarterfinalist
Round of 16
Any Other Result
Kenin is the defending champion at this tournament and is coming off (by far) the best season of her career. She was 16-2 in Grand Slam events last season and was 18-7 in hard court events. Kenin has played in only three Australian Open tournaments, and the 2020 championship was the first time she advanced beyond the second round.
How many Americans will make the Quarterfinals?
0 or 1
2
3
4 or More
During the past 11 Grand Slams, from 2018 through 2020, a total of six American men and 21 American women have made it to at least the quarterfinals. This yields an average of 2.5 American quarterfinalists per major during that stretch. Seven Americans advanced to at least the quarterfinals of the three Australian Opens during that span, an average of 2.3 per tournament.
Us Open Women's Tennis Champions
In the three 2020 majors, one American man made the quarterfinals (Australian Open) and six American women made the quarterfinals (one at the Australian Open), again yielding an average of 2.3 per tournament.
Which of these players will advance furthest?
Andrey Rublev
Matteo Berrettini
Bianca Andreescu
Victoria Azarenka
Rublev is coming off the best season of his young career, going 11-3 in Grand Slams, setting set new career-best finishes in all three tournaments. He started 2020 by advancing to the fourth round of the Australian Open, then made the quarterfinals of both the US Open and the French Open after the COVID-19 break.
Berretini has played in three Australian Opens, and last season's second-round finish was the only time that he's won a match. He's been much more successful at the other majors, where he advanced to a third-round finish at the 2020 French Open, the fourth round at 2019 Wimbledon, and the semifinals at the 2019 US Open for his best finishes.
Andreescu won the 2019 US Open but got injured in October of that year and didn't play a single match in 2020. However, she had a huge season in her first full campaign at the professional level in 2019, when she was 37-7 with three titles, including that first major at the US Open. Andreescu has played in only one Australian Open, advancing to the second round in 2019.
Azarenka was one of the dominant players on tour in the early part of the 2010s, winning two Australian Opens in 2012 and 2013 and advancing to the quarterfinals as recently as 2016. She got pregnant in 2016, and since her maternity absence has played in only one Australian Open, losing in the first round in 2019. She did advance to the final in the 2020 US Open, her best finish in a major since 2013, and she also won the Cincinnati Open as part of her 11-3 record on hard courts for the year.
Which of these players will advance furthest?
Daniil Medvedev
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Elina Svitolina
Aryna Sabalenka
Medvedev has been one of the most successful young players on tour the past two years, particularly on hard courts. He has wins at the ATP Finals, Cincinnati Masters, Shanghai Masters and Paris Masters, and has advanced to the final and semifinals of the past two US Opens. He has advanced to the fourth round of each of the past two Australian Opens and has gone 17-4 total in the past four hard-court Grand Slams.
Tsitsipas advanced to the semifinals of the 2019 Australian Open and the 2020 French Open, his two best finishes in Grand Slam events. He advanced to the third round of both hardcourt majors in 2020, and to the semifinals of the 2020 Cincinnati Masters. He is 55-28 on hard courts over the past two years.
Us Open Tennis Winners 2017
Svitolina advanced to the quarterfinals of the Australian Open in both 2018 and 2019, before losing in the third round in 2020. She had the best Grand Slam season of her career in 2019, advancing to the semifinals in both the US Open and Wimbledon. She finished 2020 strongly as well, advancing to the quarterfinals of the French Open.
Sabalenka has played in three Australian Opens but advanced past the first round only in 2019, when she lost in the third round. She lost in the first round in 2020, but she did have a successful hard-court season, finishing 23-7 overall with a win at the Qatar Open.
Will either 1-seed in the Men's or Women's Singles lose before the Quarterfinals?
Yes
No
During the past 11 Grand Slams, from 2018 through 2020, two top seeded men and eight top seeded women have lost before the quarterfinals. Among the men, four of their eight losses overall came due to either retiring during the match due to injury or a disqualification. In the three Australian Opens during that stretch, no top-seeded man and only one top-seeded woman has not advanced to at least the quarterfinals. Novak Djokovic is the top-seeded man this season, and has made at least the quarterfinals in 11 of the last 13 Australian Opens. Ashleigh Barty is the top-seeded woman, and has advanced to at least the quarterfinals in each of the last two Australian Opens after having never advanced past the third round in any of her first five appearances.
Will a former Australian Open Singles champion win the Men's or Women's Singles championship?
Yes
No
The final draw has not been completed for this season's Australian Open, so it is still subject to players potentially withdrawing. The current list of former champions to potentially play in this year's event includes Djokovic, Nadal and Wawrinka for the men, and Kenin, Osaka, Williams, Angelique Kerber and Azarenka for the women.
Among likely participants who are not former Australian Open champions, Thiem is the only to have ever won any other Grand Slam (2020 US Open). Among the women, nine of the past 14 non-Australian Opens have been won by women who have never won the Australian Open, a group that includes top-seeded Barty and second-seeded Halep.
Tiebreaker: How many total games will be played in the Men's and Women's Singles Championship matches?
During the past 11 Grand Slam championships, the men's finals have averaged 39.8 total games, and the women's finals have averaged 22.7 total games for a total of 62.5 total games overall.
The fewest total games during that stretch came in the 2020 French Open, where Nadal and Swiatek both turned in dominating performances for a total of 43 games.
The most total games during that stretch was 84 at the 2019 Wimbledon, fueled by the record-breaking men's final between Djokovic and Roger Federer that didn't go to a tiebreaker until 12-12 in the fifth set (the rule is different at the Australian Open, where the tiebreaker in the last set of the Final comes at 6-6).
During the three Australian Opens, the men and women have averaged a total of 70.7 games in the Finals.