Half Point Calculator

• Half Point Calc
• Midpoint Driving Distance
• Nfl Half Point Calculator
• Sbr Half Point Calculator

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• Make grading easy by generating grades based on the number of possible questions. If a different grading scale is needed, then adjust the grade scale to reflect different levels. GradeCalculate's Easy Grader is built for teachers by teachers.
• The half-point calculator to the left calculates the fair price for half-point buys in NFL football betting. This tool is helpful for both line shopping and purchasing half points with bookmakers. Regarding line shopping say BetOnline is offering Patriots -4 -110 and Bovada is offering Patriots -3 -140.

The majority of online sportsbooks offer the ability to purchase half points off point spreads and totals. This is generally at 10 cents each. If a point spread is 5.5 you can bet the favorite -5.5 -110, -5 -120, or -4.5 -130 or the underdog +5.5 -110, +6 -120, +6.5 -130. The same can be done for over/under betting (NFL based). In this article I explain when it is and isn’t mathematically correct to purchase half points.

Half Point Calc

Half-Point Betting Math

The math to evaluate value a half point purchase is simple. For starters use an odds converter. On that page you can enter -110 and see under implied probability it shows 52.38%. This is how often a bet at -110 needs to win to average break even. If you now enter -120 you’ll see the required win percentage to break even becomes 54.55%. That’s a difference of 2.17%.

To put this into perspective let’s say we’re looking at an NBA point spread +6.5 -110. Based on the math above we would only instead bet +7 -120 if having +7 instead of +6.5 increases our expected win rate by the required 2.17%. Well, I happen to have a push chart that shows NBA teams that are favored by about 6.5 points win by exactly 7 about 4.1% of the time. In this case we are going to pass on buying the half point because we are only increasing our cover rate by 2.05% (half of the 4.1% probability of the favorite winning by exactly 7) and needed 2.17%+.

Are you confused about why we only took half the 4.1%? To explain: When we had +6.5 if the game ended with the favorite winning 7 we lost and the bookie who had -6.5 won. Moving to 7 both of us push. Therefore that extra 4.1% of value for teams winning by exactly 7, half is on our line of +7 and half is in the bookies line of -7. We gained his share of the 7 on that move. When going from a push to a win the same is true. For example: when going -7 to -6.5 or going +6.5 to +7 our push probability increases by half the probability of that game ending with the favorite winning by 7 points.

Creating Push Charts

It is important to understand each half-point has unique value. In NFL football nearly 16% of all games are decided by EXACTLY 3 points and nearly 10% by EXACTLY 7 points. Those are the two most common margins of victory. In basketball end game strategy with intentional fouls, killing clock, playing for final shots, etc. leads to certain numbers being more likely to occur than others. In low scoring sports like hockey and soccer the chances a total will be an odd (instead of even) number is significant. So the calculations will need to be ran separately for each half point.

It is a good idea to do these well in advanced. How to go about it for most sports would be using point spreads of +/- 1.5. What this means is to calculate the push rate on favorite by 6, look for all similar games where the point spread was between 4.5 and 7.5 and see how often those games finished with the favorite winning by EXACTLY 6. If you calculate this in advanced and list it in a spreadsheet or even just draw some sort of table or list it in a note pad you’ll have it handy anytime it is needed.

As far as getting the data two of my recommended books about sports betting contain value for this. Sharp Sports Betting by Stanford Wong, while outdated, has push charts inside it. These can be used as a rough guide. Or you can use SBR’s half point calculator to capture their push rates on sides and totals for NBA, College Hoops, NFL, College Football, MLB and NHL. Their data is also outdated. It is the other book Conquering Risk that has more value to serious punter. This covers how to scrape content from the web.

If you decide to scrape data there are many potential sources. One is Covers.com which has historical spreads and results going back many years. A better source for recent years is SBROdds.com. Here the calendar at the top (to the right of where it says today / yesterday) can be used to navigate through historical odds and results at multiple sportsbooks. The best one to scrape and use is Pinnacle Sports. Once you have the database – you can create your push chart.

Finding Value Buying Half Points

The key to finding value in purchasing half points is to understand the more half-points you purchase the more each is worth in value. Let me show you why. Let’s say a bookie offers up to 8 half points at 10 cents each. So this is -110 (52.38% implied probability) vs. +8 -190 (65.52% implied probability).The difference is 13.14% or in other words 1.64% per half point. That’s much better than the 2.17% paid when going from -110 to -120. How is this the case?

The reason is because moneylines are based on percentages. 10 cents means nothing in and of itself. To show this further again -110 to -120 increases the required win rate to break even by 2.17%. Again, using our odds converter I can see -120 has an implied probability of 54.55% and -130 of 56.52%. Here the move is again 10 cents but the difference is 2.03% not 2.17%. In that NBA example earlier, the 7 was worth 2.05%. Had the question been +6.5 -120 or +7 -130 we would take +7 -130 because the push on 7 increases our win rate by more than the 2.03% difference in implied probability.

To give an extreme example, going from -180 (64.28%) to -190 (65.52%) has a difference of just 1.24%!. The bigger the moneyline odds the more likely it is that purchasing a half point at 10 cents is a good deal! So how can we can we make money from this?

As a general rule of thumb in basketball it takes 6 half points at 10 cents each to have a tiny edge over the bookmaker. If you can do more than that, with good bankroll management, you practically have a money printing machine. For example 4 points for -190 instead of -110 gives an expected ROI of about 3.6%. While sites like BetUs.com (not very reputable) used to offer 8 points for 80 cents, today most bookies are wise and such deals are uncommon. The smartest bookies limit the number of half points that can be purchased to 2 or 3 before they start to charge a premium.

The most logical place to find value should be in NFL point spreads on the most common margins of victory 3 and 7. Unfortunately, here once again the bookies charge a premium. Going from +2.5 to +3, +3 to +3.5, -3.5 to -3, and -3 to -2.5 costs 25 or 30 cents at most bookies. Going from +6.5 to +7, +7 to +7.5, -7.5 to -7, and -7 to -6.5 costs 15 or 20 cents. This can still sometimes be worth it when the ML is large. What is however more common is to find value on the half points they don’t charge a premium for. Worth noting is that the third most common margin of victory in NFL football is 10. Should I continue?

Let me just tell you buying half points is one of the many ways I personally make money betting sports. If I however told you which sites allow 4 half points at 10 cents each (yes these exist) or what the most common margins of victory are for every league, this article will become outdated quickly. Why? Because everyone will be beating the sportsbook that offers +EV point buy opportunities. That book will eventually notice and adjust their odds. This has happened many times in the past. Years ago basic strategy NFL teasers were profitable at most sites, today they are not. Years ago there was much more value in buying half points, but today bookies grown wiser.

If you do the work to make push charts, find the most common margins of victory, and learn which bookies offers what, you will soon be able to create a system. Every time a specific point spread pops up you know “at book XYZ I need to do X”. If you have that system you are making money. At that point you will be glad I concluded this article the way I did. It is important only a limited number of people take advantage of the +EV angles, because eventually they dry up.

Author: Jim Griffin

This calculator makes it easy for home buyers to decide if it makes sense to buy discount points to lower the interest rate on their mortgage. It calculates how many months it will take for the discount points to pay for themselves along with the monthly loan payments and net interest savings.

For your convenience we list current local mortgage rates to help homebuyers estimate their monthly payments & find local lenders.

Current Local Mortgage Rates

Compare your potential loan rates for loans with various points options.

The following table shows current local 30-year mortgage rates. You can use the menus to select other loan durations, alter the loan amount, change your down payment, or change your location. More features are available in the advanced drop down

The Homebuyer's Guide to Mortgage Points

What Are Points?

Discount points are a way of pre-paying interest on a mortgage. You pre-pay a lump sum of money and then obtain a lower interest rate for the duration of the loan.

How Much Do They Cost?

Points cost 1% of the balance of the loan. If a borrower buys 2 points on a $200,000 home loan then the cost of points will be 2% of $200,000, or $4,000.

Each lender is unique in terms of how much of a discount the points buy, but typically the following are fairly common across the industry.

Fixed-Rate Mortgage Discount Points

Each point lowers the APR on the loan by 1/8 (0.125%) to 1/4 of a percent (0.25%) for the duration of the loan. In most cases 1/4 of a percent is the default for fixed-rate loans.

Adjustable-Rate Mortgage Discount Points

Each point lowers the APR on the loan by 3/8 of a percent (0.375%), though this discount only applies during the introductory loan period with the teaser-rate.

Cost of Discount Points

As mentioned above, each discount point costs 1% of the amount borrowed. Discount points can be paid for upfront, or in some cases, rolled into the loan.

Fractional Discount Points

Some lenders may offer loans with fractional discount points. In mortgage rate listing tables it is not uncommon to see a loan with 1.1 discount points.

How do Discount Points Work?

Comparing Monthly Mortgage Principal & Interest Payments With Discount Points

A home-buyer can pay an upfront fee on their loan to obtain a lower rate. The following chart compares the point costs and monthly payments for a loan without points with loans using points on a $200,000 mortgage.

Some lenders advertise low rates without emphasizing the low rate comes with the associated fee of paying for multiple points.

A good rule of thumb when shopping for a mortgage is to compare like with like. Shop based on

• annual percentage rate of the loan, or
• a set number of points

Then compare what other lenders offer at that level.

For example you can compare the best rate offered by each lender at 1 point.

Find the most competitive offer at that rate or point level & then see what other lenders offer at the same rate or point level.

Breaking Even: Should You Buy Points?

Buying points is betting that you are going to stay in your home without altering the loan for many years.

Points are an upfront fee which enables the buyer to obtain a lower rate for the duration of the loan. This means the fee is paid upfront & then savings associated with the points accrue over time. The buyer spends thousands of Dollars upfront & then saves some amount like $25, $50 or $100 per month. After some number of years owning the home, the buyer ends up benefiting from the points purchase.

Forfeiting The Benefits of Points

If the homeowner does any of the following early in the loan they'll forfeit most of the benefit of points:

• sells the home
• refinances their mortgage
• gets foreclosed on
• dies

Basic Calculation

The simple calculation for breaking even on points is to take the cost of the points divided by the difference between monthly payments. So if points cost you $2,000 and saved $40 per month then it would take 50 months to break even (2000/40 = 50).

This simplified method unfortnately leaves out the impact of the varying amounts owed on different home loans.

Midpoint Driving Distance

Advanced Calculation

The balances on various loan options are repaid at different rates depending on the rate of interest charged and the amount of the loan. A more advanced calculation to figure out the break even point on points purchases also accounts for the difference in loan balances between the various options.

Our above calculator uses this option to figure the break even point, since if you wanted to refinance your loan or sell the home at some point the remaining balance on the loan would impact your finances at that point.

Calculating Points on ARM Loans

While a point typically lowers the rate on FRMs by 0.25% it typically lowers the rate on ARMs by 0.375%, however the rate discount on ARMs is only applied to the introductory period of the loan.

ARM loans eventually shift from charging the initial teaser rate to a referenced indexed rate at some margin above it. When that shift happens, points are no longer applied for the duration of the loan.

When using the above calculator for ARM loans, keep in mind that if the break even point on your points purchase exceeds the initial duration of the fixed-period of the loan then you will lose money buying points.

Who Should Buy Points?

People who are likely to keep their current mortgage for a long time. They would have the following attributes:

• Likes the local area and plans to live in the area for at least a half-decade or more.
• Stable family needs, or a home which can accommodate additional family members if the family grows.
• Homebuyer has good credit & believes interest rates on mortgages are not likely to head lower.
• Stable employment where the employer is unlikely to fire them or request the employee relocate.

Who Should Not Buy Points?

If any of the above are not true, then points are likely a bad purchase. If you lose your job, think interest rates are headed lower, have bad credit, or plan on having kids and are buying a house where there is not enough room for the family then you are unlikely to benefit from buying points.

Financing Points

Points can be financed, or rolled into the loan. The big issue with financing points is you increase the loan's balance immediately. This in turn significantly increases the number of months it takes to break even.

In the examples shown in the table above financing the points would take the break even point from 49 months to 121 months for the loan with 1 point & 120 months for the loan with 2 points.

Living in the same home for over 4 years is common, so buying points which break even in 4 years is not a bad idea. Historically most homeowners have refinanced or moved homes every 5 to 7 years. Betting that you'll remain in place & not refinance your home for over a decade is typically a bad bet. For this reason it is not advisable to finance points.

Are Points Tax Deductible?

Home mortgage points are tax-deductible in full in the year you pay them, or throughout the duration of your loan.

The IRS guidelines list the following requirements:

• Your main home secures your loan (your main home is the one you live in most of the time).
• Paying points is an established business practice in the area where the loan was made.
• The points paid weren't more than the amount generally charged in that area.
• You use the cash method of accounting. This means you report income in the year you receive it and deduct expenses in the year you pay them.
• The points paid weren't for items that are usually listed separately on the settlement sheet such as appraisal fees, inspection fees, title fees, attorney fees, and property taxes.
• The funds you provided at or before closing, including any points the seller paid, were at least as much as the points charged. You can't have borrowed the funds from your lender or mortgage broker in order to pay the points.
• You use your loan to buy or build your main home.
• The points were computed as a percentage of the principal amount of the mortgage, and
• The amount shows clearly as points on your settlement statement.

Mortgage Points vs Origination Fees

As mentioned above, mortgage points are tax deductible. Loan origination fees are not.

Loan origination fees can be expressed in Dollar terms or as points. A $200,000 loan might cost $3,000 (or 1.5%) to originate & process. This can be expressed either in Dollars or as 1.5 origination points.

Origination fees are negotiable but they help a lender cover their basic overhead & mitigate the risk a consumer may pre-pay their mortgage before the overhead is covered. On conforming mortgages this fee typically runs somewhere between $750 to $,1200.

These fees are typically incremented by half-percent. The most common fee is 1%, though the maximum loan origination fee is 3% on Qualified Mortgages of $100,000 or more.

• Smaller homes may see a higher origination fee on a percentage basis since the mortgage broker will need to do a similar amount of work for a smaller loan amount. On loans of $60,000 or below the cap can be as high as 5%.
• VA loans have a 1% cap on origination fees.
• FHA reverse mortgages can charge a maximum of the greater of $2,500, or 2% of the maximum mortgage claim amount of $200,000 & 1% of any amount above that.

Negative Points

Negative points, which are also referred to as rebate points or lender credits, are the opposite of mortgage points. Rather than paying an upfront fee to lower the interest rate of the loan, you are paid an upfront fee to be charged a higher interest rate for the duration of the loan.

An easy way to think of negative points is embedding closing costs in the interest rate charged on the loan.

Negative points typically come with some limitations.

Nfl Half Point Calculator

• They can be used to pay for closing costs on the loan inclusive of origination fees, title fees, appraisal fees & recording fees.
• They rarely exceed the closing costs on the loan.
• They can not be used as part of the down payment on the loan.

Any loans which are advertised as having 'no closing costs' typically have negative points embedded in them where the cost of originating the loan is paid through a higher rate of interest on the loan. This fee should be disclosed on your Loan Estimate (LE) and Closing Disclosure (CD).

Another term for covering the origination costs with a higher rate is 'yield spread premium.' These fees are the commission earned by a mortgage broker or loan officer in exchange for finding a loan.

Considerations for Negative Points

When you obtain negative points the bank is betting you are likely to pay the higher rate of interest for an extended period of time. If you pay the higher rate of interest for the duration of the loan then the bank gets the winning end of the deal. Many people still take the deal though because we tend to discount the future & over-value a lump sum in the present. It is the same reason credit cards are so profitable for banks.

Buyers who are charged negative points should ensure that any extra above & beyond the closing cost is applied against the loan's principal.

If you are likely to pay off the home soon before the bank reaches their break even then you could get the winning end of the deal. There are many reasons a buyer might repay the loan soon including stock options which are coming due soon, an inheritance in the near future, or a professional flipper who only needs financing in the short term while they rehab the home.

Sbr Half Point Calculator

Also in Reverse!

In the above calculator the break even point calculates how long it takes for points to pay for themselves if a home buyer opts to buy mortgage discount points. A homeowner needs to live in the home without refinancing for an extended period of time for the points to pay for themselves.

If the home buyer is instead selling points, the opposite is true. Paying off the home sooner means making more money from the negative points. When a lender sells you negative points they are betting you will not pay off your home loan soon.

Rolling the savings from the negative points into paying on the loan's balance extends the period of time in which the points are profitable for the homebuyer.

The longer the homeowner pays a higher rate of interest the more they'll compensate the bank with that higher rate of interest. Eventually they will end up paying more interest than they otherwise would have.

For people employing negative points the break even date is the amount of time before the bank would get the better end of the deal if they were selling lender credits. Buyers who pay off the loan before the break even date while employing negative points will make money on the points.

• If you buy points you want to live in the house for a long time without refinancing so the points pay for themselves.
• If you sell points you want to have the loan paid off before you reach the break even point so you are not paying the bank more interest than you would have if you chose not to buy points.

Homeowners May Want to Refinance While Rates Are Low

US 10-year Treasury rates have recently fallen to all-time record lows due to the spread of coronavirus driving a risk off sentiment, with other financial rates falling in tandem. Homeowners who buy or refinance at today's low rates may benefit from recent rate volatility.

Are you paying too much for your mortgage?

Find Out What You Qualify For

Check your refinance options with a trusted lender.

Answer a few questions below and connect with a lender who can help you refinance and save today!